Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia

Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study describe complex relationship among key ESs under combined effects of future socioeconomic development. We propose new framework that integrates land-use simulation (FLUS) model integrated valuation trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) chosen project (2021–2100) variations water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation adopted analyze synergies multiple ESs. Results showed cropland degradation (?4.11% ?19.93%) urban (+33.14% +127.96%) forestland (+5.31% +25.52%) expansion will be main forms CA. Compared with reference period (1995–2015), four exhibit different decreasing trends across CA three scenarios. observed risk erosion increase mountainous areas Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan; would lead sharp reduction CS HQ Amu Darya Basin, Syr Basin southern Turkmenistan, SSP245 scenario. found weak pairwise correlations HQ, SC strengthened (R = 0.22–0.58; p < 0.05) Tajikistan, whereas significant positive 0.47–0.60; 0.01) WY weakened. An important information/recommendation provided by this is management strategies should designed accordance major interactions water, soil, biodiversity services.